How Climate Change Affects Refugee Crisis

Over the weekend, an influx of migrants headed towards Western Europe to evade their conflict-ravaged lands. With Europe striving how to accommodate the number, this migration, according to experts, is unlikely to slow down as long as driving factors like war, terror and poverty continue. However, climate change can be an additional factor that will ostensibly make the situation worse.

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Climatologists say that Syria has experienced extreme drought since 2006. This abnormal length and severity, according to a study, is two to three times more likely to happen. This crisis, as a result, led to poverty and migration of people from rural to urban areas. "That drought, in addition to its mismanagement by the Assad regime, contributed to the displacement of two million in Syria -- that internal displacement may have contributed to the social unrest that precipitated civil war," Francisco Femia from the Center for Climate and Security in Washington, DC, told Time. Furthermore, he warned that whatever happens to Syria is possible anywhere else.

"I understand climate change did not cause the conflicts we see around the world, yet... it's now believed that drought and crop failures and high food prices helped fuel the early unrest in Syria, which descended into civil war in the heart of the Middle East," said the president of the U.S. Coast Guard Academy in a commencement address in New London, Connecticut.

Across the Middle East and Africa, climate change has already been evident. In time, these changes will eventually drive more people away from affected areas. A research analysis last year found that climate change and global warming can "systematically increase the risk of conflict, often substantially." The Pentagon, which calls climate change "a threat multiplier," and Hilary Clinton, a U.S. presidential candidate, have already given caution of the so-called "water wars," wherein governments and militaries fight over the limiting resources, thereby fleeing more migrants away in search for security and sustenance.

John Kerry, the Secretary of State, called this new class of migrants "climate refugees." These are people who are forced to leave their homes because of climate change and global warming. In a climate change conference in Anchorage, Alaska, he said that people "think migration is a challenge to Europe today because of extremism, wait until you see what happens when there's absence of water, an absence of food, or on tribe fighting against another for mere survival."

"Desertification and lack of water or food, are massively contributing to human mobility," said Michael Werz, a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress policy group. Today, Syrians and Afghans constitute the biggest number of refugees to Europe but not far behind are the Africans from the Sahel region.

As the debate over what to do with migrants continue, a call for the international effort is needed. However, Femia admitted that talking about ending war may not be enough. "A lot more attention has to be paid to putting more resources into climate adaptation... so migrants don't become the primary option," Werz added.

It is empirical that toppling the scale in favor of strife is the effects of climate change. Treating the root cause does not mean ending conflicts but addressing climate change seriously.