Across California, from the manicured lawns of Beverly Hills to sun-baked farmers' fields, they are praying for rain this winter.
But "El Nino," the weather phenomenon which sometimes brings storms, will be "weak" and "offer little help" to the desperately parched state, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
"California's record-setting drought will likely persist or intensify in large parts of the state," the agency said. Recovery this winter is "highly unlikely".
The prediction is the latest grim news for California, where the governor has already declared a state of emergency and told everyone to cut water use by 20 per cent.
So how bad is the drought?
It's bad. It's in California so there is inevitably some hyperbole, with Governor Jerry Brown calling it "epochal" and some scientists claiming it's the worst since the 16th century. But data back up these concerns. The US Drought Monitor has four stages of drought - moderate, severe, extreme and exceptional. 100 per cent of California is in some sort of drought and 58 per cent of it is in the worst category, exceptional.
The comparison with three years ago is stark
And most of the rest of the United States is currently drought-free
So it's bad, but why does it matter if a bunch of movie stars in California don't have enough water for their lawns and hot tubs?
The biggest effect isn't on city dwellers but on farmers, and that affects the whole US. California's Central Valley is the "bread basket of America," a vast agricultural area the size of Scotland.
The amount of food it produces is extraordinary. In all, more than 50 per cent of US fruit, vegetables and nuts are grown in the state. That includes more than 90 per cent of America's strawberries, olives, celery, broccoli, nectarines, garlic, canned tomatoes, cauliflower and pistachio nuts.
The area also produces 90 per cent of the world's almonds. Last year some parts of the Central Valley got only a fifth of their usual rainfall. Farmers say a slow motion disaster is unfolding. The cost to the economy this year alone is estimated at $2.2 billion and 500,000 acres have been left fallow. They warn of soaring costs in supermarkets across the country. Thousands of withered almond trees have been bulldozed.
A front loader moves an uprooted almond tree at Baker Farming (Getty
Images)
Where are the farmers getting water from?
They're digging deeper and deeper to reach groundwater. It used to be they only had to dig a few feet. Now, they're boring holes more than 2,000ft down. Each year since 2011 four trillion gallons of groundwater has been used trying to sustain farms and it's not being replenished. In these NASA satellite images you can see how the groundwater is drying up.
How long has the drought been going on?
Everyone agrees it's been going on for at least three years. Some climatologists believe the start date was 1999. Others believe it's part of a "mega-drought" lasting decades. In 2013 the cities of Los Angeles, San Francisco and Sacramento all hit record low rain levels. Over three years Los Angeles got just 11.93 inches, which is 17.93 inches below normal for a three year period.
Several California cities have received less rain than Death Valley. In 2013/14 the state as a whole got 49 per cent of its average rainfall. In January 2014 the snow pack in the Sierra Nevada Mountains, a vital source of water, was at 12 per cent of its usual level, another record low. Scientists discovered the disappearing snow pack had caused the Earth's crust to rise 15mm.
Nasa satellite image reveals the change in snow levels between January 2013 and January 2014
So is climate change responsible?
Scientists disagree. In looking for a cause they have focused on an area of lingering high pressure off the Pacific coast. It has been dubbed the "Ridiculously Resilient Ridge" or "The Blob". It diverted storms, and rain, to the north away from California. In a study Stanford scientists suggested it could be linked to human industrial activity which heated the ocean. They said such a ridge was "much more likely to occur today than prior to the human emission of greenhouse gases that began during the Industrial Revolution in the 1800s." However, researchers at the NOAA and the University of Washington concluded that rising temperatures in California were caused by natural changes in wind patterns, not greenhouse gases. They said winds had weakened over the last century meaning less water evaporates, and less rain falls. Nate Mantua, co-author of the study, said: "We do not see a human hand in the warming of the west coast.
What about reservoirs?
They're in a pitiful state. Overall, California's reservoirs are at 36 per cent capacity. The largest, Lake Shasta, is at 25 per cent. The second largest, Lake Oroville, is at 28 per cent. They're all now surrounded by giant "bath tub rings" showing where the water levels used to be.
Who else is affected?
Dozens of small communities in the worst affected areas are in danger of running out of water. East Porterville in the Central Valley already has, with 1,000 people without water. Donna Johnson, 72, said her taps went dry in June. She said: “Nobody realises what it’s like if you feel grimy every day."
What's being done to save water?
California Governor Jerry Brown declared a state of emergency earlier this year and asked everyone to cut water use by 20 per cent. Restaurants are only giving table water if customers ask, lawns are being replaced with plastic grass, or simply painted green, and pools are being covered to stop evaporation.There are $500 fines for people who use excessive water washing their cars or driveways. In August urban residents cut water use by 11.5 per cent, or 27 billion gallons, the amount of water it would take to fill 40,000 Olympic-size swimming pools. Next month California voters will decide whether the state should issue a $7.5 billion water bond which would fund the building of two new dams, plus desalination and recycling projects.