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Predictions for Smart Buildings in 2011Jim Sinopoli, PE, RCDD, LEED APSmart Buildings LLC
Predictions for Smart Buildings in 2011
"Never make predictions, especially about the future." - Casey Stengel, American Baseball Player and
Manager, 1891-1975
Traditional Building Management Systems
(BMS)
from
major
international
manufacturers will become obsolete.
The major systems are slow to adopt the latest IT
software and applications, their interfaces are not
the customizable dashboards users are looking for,
their applications suites aren't broad enough and
they wil have to be completely retooled to handle
demand response applications. Third party
developers are already tapping into the BMS
databases or using open communication protocols
to read and write to each point and taking the BMS functions to a new level. Without a quick
response major manufacturers may be left with just software configuration tools for their
control ers and field devices.
There will be a major shakeout in the "energy management software" sector.
There is some great energy software available, much of it developed by smal and medium
sized companies that have agility and speed not seen in larger companies. However,
developing software is one thing; it is straightforward to read energy data from Modbus
meters and create graphs, charts and tables. Ongoing support and additional development
is different and wil take deeper pockets and larger companies. Expect a few smal and
medium size companies to exponential y grow, some to be acquired by large companies,
but some cul ing wil take place.
Internships for facility technicians, engineers and managers will dramatically
grow.
The building operations industry is short on qualified people. The skil set and knowledge
base to operate and maintain a building is rapidly changing. Young men and women can go
to an academic institution to gain knowledge of the technical systems in buildings but there's
nothing like working in real world building operations to ground and grow that expertise.
Large organizations with significant needs for facility technicians, engineers and managers
wil move to team up with technical institutions and offer internships to find and develop the
talent.
Telecom carriers will enter the energy management and building operations
industry.
Yes, your cel phone or cable television service provider may be looking at facility and
energy management as a new opportunity in their "network connectivity" or "managed
services" business. We tend to think of managed services as primarily dealing with
information technology, where a company such as IBM manages the everyday operation of
an enterprise client's IT hardware and software. However several service providers have
figured out that it's not only IT systems they can manage for their clients but any sensor or
device on any system or network. From a business standpoint the service providers are just
1
© 2011 Smart Buildings, LLC
Predictions for Smart Buildings in 2011
2011
Jim Sinopoli, PE, RCDD, LEED AP, Managing Principal, Smart Buildings LLC
leveraging their existing assets and expanding their offerings. The idea is to expand
telemetry services where data from remote devices and sensors can be col ected and
communicated to a central point and analyzed for meaningful information, something that
could bring value to building owners and managers. Major carriers are already deploying
command and operations facilities and "col aboration centers" for the development of M2M
applications. They're new slogan may be "Check your minutes, order a movie, and manage
your building"!
Except for California, the trading of Carbon Emissions is pretty much dead.
The business approach to capping CO2 amounts and letting companies sel or buy tons of
CO2 sounded good but fraud in trading, the recession, and even the infamous "scientific"
emails of Climategate have managed to sink the idea. The largest exchange in North
America, the Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX), was once estimated to eventual y handle a
$10 tril ion trading market in CO2, but in October the CCX announced it is closing shop. On
top of that are revelations of fraud in the Danish emissions trading registry where corrupt
traders have walked away with an estimated $7 bil ion in the last two years. Similar fraud
al egations are being investigated in other European countries; Germany, Britain, France,
Spain,
Norway
and
the
Netherlands.
Expect a few some new energy companies who started in the last few years
and are involved with the smart grid and buildings to flourish after the
recession is over.
Recessions are transformative periods. Some of the world's largest companies started
during a recession and managed to grow and evolve into industry leaders. This recession
we've had large government funding for the smart grid, keen focus on energy, and a whole
new market and industry created. Demand Response is one example. In 2009 only 11% of
the Demand Response market was captured, with the remaining 89% being nothing except
a great business opportunity. Expect companies such as Enernoc and Comverge to grow
and become industry stalwarts.
The importance of certification and accreditation of designers, contractors
and operators for integrated building systems will increase rapidly.
When we're undergoing major transformation of how buildings are designed, constructed
and operated; when the complexity of the buildings is rising steeply; when the skil set and
knowledge base to operate a building is shifting, the marketplace wil sort through the
qualified and unqualified by accreditation. The certification and accreditation process has
been and is likely to continue to be a messy process, involving many organizations with
fragmented or overlapping focus, and a knowledge base covering everything from BIM and
LEED to integrated systems, security systems, energy and much more.
"White-Space" networking will start to develop into the next major wireless
standard.
When television broadcasting was exclusively analog the regulators of radio frequency
bands required "white-space" or "guard bands" between the frequencies so as to "guard"
against radio interference. Given broadcasting has gone primarily digital and is also
"compressing" more signal into less frequency, the guard bands are no longer needed, thus
opening up radio frequencies for "white-space networking". Why the excitement and
anticipation? Network speeds should be around 50-100MBps and above, thus easily
2
© 2011 Smart Buildings, LLC
Predictions for Smart Buildings in 2011
2011
Jim Sinopoli, PE, RCDD, LEED AP, Managing Principal, Smart Buildings LLC
accommodating streaming video and eliminating problems with VOIP quality. Seeing
opportunities in new markets and new devices (cal ed "white space devices" or WSD) al the
big technology players are backing the endeavor: Google, Microsoft, Del , Intel, Hewlett-
Packard, etc.
For more information, write us at info@smart-buildings.com
3
© 2011 Smart Buildings, LLC
"Never make predictions, especially about the future." - Casey Stengel, American Baseball Player and
Manager, 1891-1975
Traditional Building Management Systems
(BMS)
from
major
international
manufacturers will become obsolete.
The major systems are slow to adopt the latest IT
software and applications, their interfaces are not
the customizable dashboards users are looking for,
their applications suites aren't broad enough and
they wil have to be completely retooled to handle
demand response applications. Third party
developers are already tapping into the BMS
databases or using open communication protocols
to read and write to each point and taking the BMS functions to a new level. Without a quick
response major manufacturers may be left with just software configuration tools for their
control ers and field devices.
There will be a major shakeout in the "energy management software" sector.
There is some great energy software available, much of it developed by smal and medium
sized companies that have agility and speed not seen in larger companies. However,
developing software is one thing; it is straightforward to read energy data from Modbus
meters and create graphs, charts and tables. Ongoing support and additional development
is different and wil take deeper pockets and larger companies. Expect a few smal and
medium size companies to exponential y grow, some to be acquired by large companies,
but some cul ing wil take place.
Internships for facility technicians, engineers and managers will dramatically
grow.
The building operations industry is short on qualified people. The skil set and knowledge
base to operate and maintain a building is rapidly changing. Young men and women can go
to an academic institution to gain knowledge of the technical systems in buildings but there's
nothing like working in real world building operations to ground and grow that expertise.
Large organizations with significant needs for facility technicians, engineers and managers
wil move to team up with technical institutions and offer internships to find and develop the
talent.
Telecom carriers will enter the energy management and building operations
industry.
Yes, your cel phone or cable television service provider may be looking at facility and
energy management as a new opportunity in their "network connectivity" or "managed
services" business. We tend to think of managed services as primarily dealing with
information technology, where a company such as IBM manages the everyday operation of
an enterprise client's IT hardware and software. However several service providers have
figured out that it's not only IT systems they can manage for their clients but any sensor or
device on any system or network. From a business standpoint the service providers are just
1
© 2011 Smart Buildings, LLC
Predictions for Smart Buildings in 2011
2011
Jim Sinopoli, PE, RCDD, LEED AP, Managing Principal, Smart Buildings LLC
leveraging their existing assets and expanding their offerings. The idea is to expand
telemetry services where data from remote devices and sensors can be col ected and
communicated to a central point and analyzed for meaningful information, something that
could bring value to building owners and managers. Major carriers are already deploying
command and operations facilities and "col aboration centers" for the development of M2M
applications. They're new slogan may be "Check your minutes, order a movie, and manage
your building"!
Except for California, the trading of Carbon Emissions is pretty much dead.
The business approach to capping CO2 amounts and letting companies sel or buy tons of
CO2 sounded good but fraud in trading, the recession, and even the infamous "scientific"
emails of Climategate have managed to sink the idea. The largest exchange in North
America, the Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX), was once estimated to eventual y handle a
$10 tril ion trading market in CO2, but in October the CCX announced it is closing shop. On
top of that are revelations of fraud in the Danish emissions trading registry where corrupt
traders have walked away with an estimated $7 bil ion in the last two years. Similar fraud
al egations are being investigated in other European countries; Germany, Britain, France,
Spain,
Norway
and
the
Netherlands.
Expect a few some new energy companies who started in the last few years
and are involved with the smart grid and buildings to flourish after the
recession is over.
Recessions are transformative periods. Some of the world's largest companies started
during a recession and managed to grow and evolve into industry leaders. This recession
we've had large government funding for the smart grid, keen focus on energy, and a whole
new market and industry created. Demand Response is one example. In 2009 only 11% of
the Demand Response market was captured, with the remaining 89% being nothing except
a great business opportunity. Expect companies such as Enernoc and Comverge to grow
and become industry stalwarts.
The importance of certification and accreditation of designers, contractors
and operators for integrated building systems will increase rapidly.
When we're undergoing major transformation of how buildings are designed, constructed
and operated; when the complexity of the buildings is rising steeply; when the skil set and
knowledge base to operate a building is shifting, the marketplace wil sort through the
qualified and unqualified by accreditation. The certification and accreditation process has
been and is likely to continue to be a messy process, involving many organizations with
fragmented or overlapping focus, and a knowledge base covering everything from BIM and
LEED to integrated systems, security systems, energy and much more.
"White-Space" networking will start to develop into the next major wireless
standard.
When television broadcasting was exclusively analog the regulators of radio frequency
bands required "white-space" or "guard bands" between the frequencies so as to "guard"
against radio interference. Given broadcasting has gone primarily digital and is also
"compressing" more signal into less frequency, the guard bands are no longer needed, thus
opening up radio frequencies for "white-space networking". Why the excitement and
anticipation? Network speeds should be around 50-100MBps and above, thus easily
2
© 2011 Smart Buildings, LLC
Predictions for Smart Buildings in 2011
2011
Jim Sinopoli, PE, RCDD, LEED AP, Managing Principal, Smart Buildings LLC
accommodating streaming video and eliminating problems with VOIP quality. Seeing
opportunities in new markets and new devices (cal ed "white space devices" or WSD) al the
big technology players are backing the endeavor: Google, Microsoft, Del , Intel, Hewlett-
Packard, etc.
For more information, write us at info@smart-buildings.com
3
© 2011 Smart Buildings, LLC
2011
Jim Sinopoli, PE, RCDD, LEED AP, Managing Principal, Smart Buildings LLC
Jim Sinopoli, PE, RCDD, LEED AP, Managing Principal, Smart Buildings LLC
Original Article
http://www.smart-buildings.com/pdf/2011janpredictions.pdf
http://www.smart-buildings.com/pdf/2011janpredictions.pdf
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